Monday, March 26, 2007

GAP Playoff Picture

With just 16 games left, the playoff picture is coming into focus. While it appears the Royals are on track for their first playoff appearance, I'm not counting it yet. Anyway, here is the glance:

AL
North - Boston (86) leads Chicago by 8 games.
East - Minnesota (82) leads New York by 5 games and Cleveland by 8 games.
South - Kansas City (85) leads Tampa Bay by 8 games.
West - Oakland (97) has clinched.

WC - Six teams fighting for two spots:
Seattle 80
Chicago 78
Tampa Bay 77
New York 77
Cleveland 74
Texas 72

Oakland will get the #1 seed. Boston and KC battle for the second bye, with Minnesota a longshot. Those four are in the drivers' seats for the division titles, with the WC race still wide open.

If the playoffs started today:
(1) Oak vs winner of (4) Min vs (5) Sea
(2) Bos vs winner of (3) KC vs (6) Chi

NL
North - Pittsburgh (83) leads Chicago by 8 games.
East - New York (82) leads Atlanta by 11 games.
South - Houston (89) leads Florida by 1 game and Charlotte by 4 games.
West - San Francisco (95) has clinched.

WC - Two teams in control:
Florida 88
Charlotte 85

San Francisco will likely get the #1 seed, but if either Houston or Florida gets hot, they could make it interesting. The byes will go to SF and the South winner. Charlotte has 7 games on Atlanta and 10 or more on the rest of the field for the last WC spot.

If the playoffs started today:
(1) SF vs winner of (4) NY vs (5) Fla
(2) Hou vs winner of (3) Pit vs (6) Cha

Tuesday, March 20, 2007

MVP Candidates - NL

So now it is time for the NL candidates to step forward. The NL is a bit tougher in that many of the better teams lack a true MVP type candidate (Houston, Charlotte, Pittsburg, Florida) - especially since I am not considering pitchers (though I think they should be considered).

1a) Alvarez (SF) - (.381/.455/.682 34/102) Is part of the offensive duo that powers the Giants as what many will argue to be the best team in GAP. Leads the league in OPS, average, OBP, slugging, and RC/27 (second to Santana in GAP) and plays catcher. His problem in winning the MVP this year will be...

1b) Belcher (SF) - (.347/.414/.659 44/134) May well beat his teammate for the MVP, but without Alvarez, Belchers RBI production goes way down. Belcher ranks in the top 3 in the NL in every major offensive category, but plays the easier 1b instead of C. I give a slight edge to Alvarez, but that could change.

3) Iglesias (Mil) - (.305/.378/.654 54/136) Plays on a below .500 team, but is putting up huge numbers again. Leads the league in HRs and RBI, and is 3rd in slugging. Where would Milwaukee be without him and Campos?

4) Hogan (NYM) - (.286/.370/.553 30/96) Is a steady player for the Mets and plays a strong 3b as well. Probably would not be considered a leading candidate if the Mets did not have such a good record. Might be the second best offensive player on the team with the acquisition of Diaz.

5) Charlton (CHC) - (.356/.403/.544 19/93) Is playing great ball this year for the Cubs as they fight to stay in the wild card race. Charlton also gets credit for playing C as well as being second in the leaging in hitting. Would not have a problem putting him ahead of Hogan on a ballot.

Honorable Mentions: Campos (Mil), Mieses (Cin), Hall (CHC)

MVP Candidates - AL

Well, it is that time of year again. Time to rollout my favorites for MVP with less than 30 games to play. I decided since HBD has given their list it was time for mine.

1a) Raul Santana (BOS) - (.339 ave/.490 obp/.650 slg 29 HR/109 RBI) Has been a force for the Redsox offensively creating 12.8 runs per 27 outs, easily leading the league. He also leads the league in OPS with 1.140. The weakness in his candidacy is that he is a DH and that he has played about 30 games les than his competition.

1b) Artie Rizzo (KC) - (.341/.445/.642 37/106) Is part of the offense that has carried the Royals (and their struggling pitching) to first place in the AL South. Is second in the league in OPS, 2nd in average, 2nd in OBP, 2nd in slugging, 2nd in RC/27, 3rd in Runs scored, 5th in HRs....you get the picture. He is an well rounded offensive player, and I would have no problem voting for him over Santana.

3) Chuck Hoover (Min) - (.301/.378/.534 27/110) Is an intregal part of the rise of the Twins to the top of the AL East. Although his numbers do not stack up to Santana's or Rizzo's, his defense make him very valuable as he is playing a gold glove caliber CF (compare his numbers to gold glove leading Rowand, and they are very similar).

4) Joe Warden (Det) - (.304/.434/.579 34/117) I usually am not fond of including players from bottom dwelling teams, but Joe is putting up monster numbers and deserves recognition. Was lost in the shuffle last year as he was traded mid season from the NL to the AL, but has adapted to the AL just fine this year.

5) CC Hutton (Oak) - (.279/.387/.567 38/134) The straw that stirs the Athletics offense, Hutton has been called on to play a bigger role this year with the many injuries to the A's team. The career RBI leader shows again why he is the best with 134 RBI in only 129 games played. Even though his other offensive numbers are down for him, the best player on the best team deserves consideration.

Honorable mention: Mota (KC), Everett (Bos),

Saturday, March 17, 2007

The .900 club shrinks

Already since I posted the .900 club, we have lost 4 members and 4 are on the verge of leaving. Ellis, Yoshii, Torrealba, and Daly have all dropped out, while Charlton (.901), Hogan (.903), Ford (.901), and Parra (.909) theaten to leave. We might drop below 30 by the end of the year. Within a few years, the .900 club might be a fairly exclusive club.

Thursday, March 1, 2007

The .900 OPS Club - Large and Shrinking

I put together what I believe is a comprehensive list of the players that are members of the .900 OPS club. Although not exact, I tried to use about ~1200 PA as a cut off(which eliminated Carrera (CLE) with 1100+ PA). My guess is that in a few weeks we will go from about 38 members to around 35 as our league moves away from the blotted offensive numbers of season 1. Several players have dropped below .900 already this year, including Cleveland Indian 3b Selby - although Charlton (CHC) is one person that joined the club his year with a torrid start. The 1.000 club includes 12 players. Next time I do this, I might switch to a .950 club (22 current members), but I was not about to ditch my work. Top Teams - OAK (4 - 3 in 1.000 club) and KC (4 - Ellis might drop out).

Name Team BA OBP SLG OPS HR RBI
Nunnally OAK 0.352 0.478 0.695 1.173 98 290
Hutton OAK 0.317 0.405 0.663 1.068 134 442
Rizzo KC 0.324 0.438 0.628 1.066 105 312
Alvarez SF 0.349 0.428 0.634 1.062 86 301
Santana BOS 0.329 0.466 0.583 1.049 71 271
Warden DET 0.328 0.429 0.618 1.047 100 351
Belcher SF 0.327 0.401 0.643 1.044 117 345
Campos MIL 0.325 0.396 0.641 1.037 126 364
Hamilton OAK 0.299 0.385 0.645 1.030 113 342
Hunter TEX 0.299 0.359 0.662 1.021 150 368
Franco CLE 0.285 0.374 0.644 1.018 135 389
Reboulet TEX 0.325 0.408 0.604 1.012 94 286
Wirth ANA 0.293 0.376 0.630 1.006 122 320
Zappata HOU 0.297 0.359 0.642 1.001 81 268
Valentin OAK 0.298 0.369 0.623 0.992 94 316
Casey CHW 0.309 0.388 0.596 0.984 110 346
Jimenez TEX 0.291 0.369 0.602 0.971 120 311
Riggs NYY 0.300 0.399 0.557 0.956 72 258
Linden ATL 0.311 0.412 0.544 0.956 47 226
Fox HOU 0.304 0.366 0.588 0.954 100 311
House BOS 0.339 0.410 0.544 0.954 47 228
Mota KC 0.291 0.366 0.585 0.951 103 361
Swann PIT 0.304 0.393 0.554 0.947 71 252
Iglesias MIL 0.282 0.356 0.583 0.939 123 313
Clifton KC 0.298 0.366 0.570 0.936 86 325
Smart MIL 0.294 0.370 0.566 0.936 80 269
Goldman FLA 0.293 0.361 0.570 0.931 65 223
Para CHC 0.298 0.360 0.564 0.924 99 307
Segui PHI 0.285 0.349 0.575 0.924 98 300
Diaz CIN 0.282 0.351 0.573 0.924 110 281
Lopez FLA 0.300 0.376 0.547 0.923 63 203
Ford TOR 0.314 0.393 0.526 0.919 59 227
Hogan NYM 0.290 0.369 0.543 0.912 67 222
Charlton CHC 0.317 0.379 0.526 0.905 66 251
Daly PIT 0.284 0.400 0.503 0.903 68 205
Torrealba SEA 0.282 0.373 0.528 0.901 78 247
Yoshii TB 0.295 0.369 0.531 0.900 58 311
Ellis KC 0.325 0.404 0.496 0.900 44 211