Thursday, June 28, 2007

Playoff Picture

One game left, and the playoff picture is still blurry.

AMERICAN LEAGUE

What we know:
-1- Oakland (116-45)
-2- Kansas City (100-61)
-5- Tampa Bay (94-67)

In the mix:
New York (83-78)
Cleveland (82-79)
Texas (82-79)
Chicago (81-80)
Boston (81-80)

Applicable tiebreakers held:
Cle over NYY (6-4)
Tex over NYY (6-4)
Cle over Tex (6-4)
Bos over CWS (7-3)
CWS over Cle (6-4)
Tex over CWS (5-5 but Tex wins on div record)

Last game vs:
NYY vs Min
Cle vs Bal
CWS vs Det
Bos vs Tor
Tex vs KC

Winner of AL East gets the -3- seed.
Winner of AL North gets the -4- seed.
Last WC gets the -6- seed.

NYY wins the AL East with a win OR a Cle loss.
Cle wins the AL East with a win AND a NYY loss, due to tiebreak advantage.
Cle clinches a playoff spot with a win which will be the -6- if NYY also wins.
NYY wins the -6- if they lose AND Cle wins AND Tex loses.
NYY is only eliminated if the lose AND Cle wins AND Tex wins.

Bos wins the AL North with a win OR a CWS loss, due to tiebreak advantage.
CWS wins the AL North with a win AND a Bos loss.
CWS can't get the WC due to tiebreak disadvantage vs Tex, so...
CWS is eliminated with a loss OR a Bos win.
Bos is eliminated with a loss AND a Cle win.

Tex wins the -6- with a win AND a Cle loss.
Tex also wins the -6- with a win AND a Cle win AND a NYY loss (Cle would win the AL East, Tex holds tiebreak advantage over NYY).
Tex is eliminated with a loss, due to tiebreak disadvantage vs Cle and overall record disadvantage vs NYY.

NATIONAL LEAGUE

What we know:
-3- San Francisco (99-62)
-4- Milwaukee (88-73)
-5- Houston (97-64)

In the mix:
New York (103-58)
St. Louis (102-59)
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Atlanta (91-70)
Florida (91-70)

Applicable tiebreakers held:
StL over NYM (6-4)
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Fla over Atl (7-3)

Last game vs:
StL vs Cha
NYM vs Phi
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Atl vs Was
Fla vs Hou

To determine who gets the -1- and -2- seeds:

NYM gets the -1- with a win OR a StL loss.
StL gets the -1- with a win AND a NYM loss, due to tiebreak advantage.
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To determine who gets the -6- seed and who is on the outside looking in:

Fla gets the -6- with a win OR an Atl loss, due to tiebreak advantage.
Atl gets the -6- with a win AND an Fla loss.

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