AL South Draft Review

Stolen from the Cooperstown blog, here is the draft review, part one of eight. Numbers provided include scouting budgets, round and selection of each pick, age, and my projection of a players' best ML season (AVG/OBP/SLG for hitters, IP/ERA/WHIP for pitchers).

AL South

Kansas City ($3m C, $4m HS)

1/26 Larry Walker (19, RP) -- Not a great first round pick, but not a terrible one either. His 81/50 combo makes him an RP who can go quite often, or a guy who could work in a 6MT. He does appear to struggle with lefties, but he has very good control. With just two effective pitches, it remains to be seen if he will top out as a very good ML setup man, or something less.
(120/3.80/1.40)

2/69 Rick Reid (18, 1B) -- Reid should become a very good major leaguer in a few years. He may not quite make it to all-star status, but he will probably get a solid ten-year career in with his solid numbers and excellent eye.
(.320/.450/.525)

3/101 Max Plata (21, 2B) -- Plata went back to college for his senior year.

The Royals grabbed a couple other 1B/DH types in Bob Bailey, Gerald Hughes, and Don Greenwood, all of whom (save maybe Greenwood) could become serviceable MLers.

Tampa Bay ($10m C, $0m HS)

1/27 Lance Jennings (20, RP) -- Jennings looks to have all the makings of a very nice ML setup man. Excellent control, tough against righties and solid against lefties, a superb heater and an outstanding hook. The only possible question mark is his propensity to give up fly balls. Barring any unforeseen problems, Jennings should be a quality guy in the pen from about Season 6 through Season 17.
(75 /2.75/1.15)

2/70 Juan Sanchez (21, 2B) -- Sanchez is a speedy 2B with a suspect glove. He doesn't have the glove to play CF either, or the arm to play RF or 3B, so he may turn into an LF/1B type. If that is the case, his numbers don't look nearly as good. However, if he can stay at 2B, maybe for a team that doesn't give up a ton of ground balls to the right side, he could turn into a productive big leaguer.
(.295/.380/.440)

3/102 Diego Johnson (19, 2B) -- Johnson is unsigned at this time.

The Rays made a decision to forego HS players this year, and end up with a crop of 19-22 year olds that could help them sooner rather than later. They went with several more 2Bs in later rounds, but all seem to have one flaw or another. We'll all be shocked if Tampa's ownership is still in place after say, S8, as they continue to make moves to win now, future be damned.

Texas ($4m C, $4m HS)

1/25 Denny Daniels (21, C/DH) -- Daniels doesn't look to have what it takes to be a major league catcher. Never mind that, as he will have no trouble finding a way into a big league lineup. A prototypical DH, Daniels already has great power and projects to be one of the most prodigious sluggers of all time. Not just a big swinger, Daniels has a decent eye and hits for contact very well. Durable and healthy, and already nearly ready to be in the bigs after three years in the Big Ten, this Michigan Wolverine could put up 500 HRs or more by the time he hangs them up.
(.340/.440/.625)

2/68 Robert Mann (19, SP) -- Mann's selection was a head-scratcher among GMs. While he seems made to pitch in the bigs, he's got just one problem--he can't get guys out. He has decent stuff but hitters seem to eat him up, especially lefties. He is, however, off to a good start, allowing just one run in 9.2 innings in two starts. Rangers' scouts must've seen something they liked during his one season at Western Wisconsin Technical College.
(won't make it to ML)

3/100 Harry Whitaker (20, RP) -- Whitaker brings excellent control and speed to the table, along with a nice fastball. He gets guys out, but could have trouble in hitters' parks, as he gives up more than his share of fly balls. He will be a solid big leaguer for years, but it remains to be seen if he will be a closer or a setup guy.
(60/3.75/1.40)

4th-rounder Karim Amaro could be a serviceable ML 1B one day, but he won't hit for a ton of power, something most like in their 1B/DH types. Daniels is clearly the key to Texas' S3 draft class.

Memphis ($11m C, $10m HS)

1/14 Moose Bryant (21, 2B) -- Bryant is unsigned.

1/35 Junior Saenz (18, SS) -- There is a lot to like about Saenz. He is projected to be a solid ML SS defensively, while putting up solid numbers with the bat. He hits for contact well and has some speed. He won't be an all-star, but he will be a solid big leaguer for several years.
(.315/.395/.450)

2/57 Brendan Nixon (18, CF) -- Nixon is also unsigned.

3/89 Pascual Carrasco (18, RF) -- Carrasco has some nice facets to his game, but others that make him flawed, possibly fatally. He has nice range and an excellent arm defensively, with a shaky glove, so he'll either be an excellent 1B or a bad 3B/RF. He has a great eye and could hit for average, but lefties own him. It's hard to imagine Carrasco in an everyday major league role except under the most perfect circumstances.
(.240/.310/.425)

With two of their top three picks unsigned, the grade is incomplete on the Blues draft class.

Week 2 Power Rankings

Here we are 70+ games into Season 3 of the GAP, and guess who's number 1? Yeah, it's still the A's, but not by a whole lot. There are more than a couple teams on their heels, and by Week 3, they could very well be dethroned...


SEASON 3 WEEK 2 POWER RANKINGS

1. Oakland Athletics (48-24) LW 1

To say the A's are less than impressive lately is a bit of an overstatement, but a 13-2 loss to the last place Padres and an 11-5 loss to the sub .500 Dodgers in the last week have caused quite a stir in Oakland as of late. Butch Brede (took the loss to the Padres) has been heard murmuring of early retirement, and Oscar Nunnally still has over a month before he's ready to even take BP. As long as they hold the best record in the league, they'll stick at the #1 spot, but things just don't seem as bright as they used to in Sunny California for the Athletics.

2. San Francisco Giants (46-26) LW 2

Playing the Mounties sure lifts the spirits of a team coming of a tough interleague battle with the AL West. The Giants felt pretty good taking 5 of 9 against the A's, Mariners and Angels, but are sure happy to be back in the NL, where their staff can finally take a breather. Clarence Cooke might be the happiest to be back in the NL as he shut down Vancouver with 8 strong shutout innings this afternoon. Cooke is again on pace to hit 20 wins with a sub 3.50 ERA, and even possibly an All-Star start.

3. Charlotte Dukes (45-27) LW 8
The resurgent Dukes have won 19 of 25, and suddenly look like serious title contenders. The pitching staff has been brilliant of late, as Clint Stephenson threw 7 shutout innings against the Rays while Frank Stockton (who's struggles have been well documented in Charlotte) rebounded in a 6 inning, 3 ER win versus the powerful Royals. No longer will the Dukes fly under the radar, as this team is finally on the map.



4. Boston Red Sox (44-28) LW NR

Like the Dukes, the Sox have been on fire as of late, winning 18 of 22, and the only reason they aren't ranked higher than Charlotte is due to a relatively weak schedule during the streak (although they did recently sweep the Cubs). Their rise to greatness came in a recent 13-3 whipping of Chicago, pinning 9 runs on young stud Rich Allen. The Red Sox enjoy an extremely balanced attack, as Raul Santana, Stuffy Everett and Jesse House are all having career years.

5. Minnesota Twins (45-27) LW 9

Another team on a big hot streak as of late, the Twins have won 18 of 24, including sweeps of the Phillies, Senators and Blues, plus taking 2 of 3 with the Royals, Angels and Mets. Scooter Spehr is off to a hot start so far, going 9-1 with an ERA just under 4.00, topping it off with a 7 inning, 1 ER win early this morning versus Philadelphia. Chuck Hoover and Teddy Rivera lead a balanced attack for the Twins, and are looking to lead someone other than the Indians to an AL East title for the first time in the short history of the GAP

6. Chicago Cubs (43-29) LW 3
The injuries keep piling up in Chicago, but somehow the Cubs are keeping it together. This time it was starting SS Jerry Boudreau and Setup man Louis Riley. The good news is, if this team can survive for another couple weeks, they should both come back around the same time and provide a spark for the depleted Cubbies. In positive news, early MVP polls point to Larry Charlton, who continues to defy skeptics and seems to be getting better with age. The 32 year old gap hitter has been compared favorably to a combination of Todd Helton and a young Mike Piazza, and is proving why with a .372 Avg and a 1.036 OPS so far in Season 3.


7. Houston Astros (44-28) LW 7
The NL South should be extremely enjoyable to watch down the stretch, as both the Astros and Dukes look poised to be in it till the end. Charlotte looks to hold the better lineup, but only the Giants have a better pitching staff than Houston. Kerry Sinclair is only 4-0 in 13 starts, but his 1.34 ERA and .199 OAV have generated whispers of "Rocket" in Minute Maid Park. Luis Lira has been Mr. Reliable thus far, averaging over 7 innings per start, and holding opponents to a .257 average. If the Astros can keep up their strong pitching, they should keep pace with Charlotte all season.

8. New York Mets (43-29) LW 4

This team is obviously hit or miss lately, and my best guess is that they sorely miss Bosco Jefferson. At times they look amazing, for example, in a 9-0 shutout against the Yankees early this morning. But 3 shutout losses versus the Indians and Yankees in the last week point to some glaring issues with the reigning NL East Champs. The offense just isn't quite there, and unless they plan to win alot of 2-0 games down the stretch, this team could be in some serious trouble. They have the talent in Turner Davis, Eugene Betemit and Ted Hogan, but they are going to need to turn it up, and soon.

9. Atlanta Braves (41-31) LW 10
The Braves continue to slowly warm up and are starting to look closer and closer to midseason form. The bullpen has been dynamite thus far, as Pedro Diaz, Hamlet Perkins and Donald Xaio all hold ERA's under 2.00 and Zephyr Bennett is right behind them with an ERA of 2.55. It helps when you have guys like Malachi Carson and Ricardo Castro (a combined 16-7 in 31 starts) pitching 7 strong innings every 5th day too. The Braves are only 2 games behind the NL East leading Mets, and could overtake them any day. This team looks built for the postseason, and is definitely one of the scariest October nightmares.

10. Seattle Mariners (40-32) LW 6

They nearly slipped off the radar this week, and that's just what this team is showing so far in Season 3. They look to be barely holding on, and could totally fall apart at any second. Wes White has looked eerily human thus far, with a pedestrian 3.72 ERA, and it may be partly due to the team trading away staff ace, and best friend of White's Brandon Freeman to the Tigers. The team is going to desperately need Harry Wilfredo and Alfonso Guardado to step it up if the Mariners want to return to the postseason.

Dropped from the rankings: KC Royals (LW 5)

Career Pitching Totals

I wanted to take a look at career pitching stats of some of the top pitchers in our league. I have ranked them by career ERA with a min of 400 career IP(if I have missed any, let me know and I can update it). The stats were taken this afternoon and do not reflect the PM2 cycle.

Pitcher (ERA, Record, Win %, WHIP, IP)
1. Greg Stewart - CLE (2.62, 55-13, .809, 1.04, 593)
2. Bosco Jefferson - BOS (3.02, 35-16, .687, 1.20, 420)
3. Jake Payton - PIT (3.08, 38-27, .585, 1.16, 642)
4. Fergie Joseph - SF (3.17, 30-15, .667, 1.26, 414)
5. Hector Guerrero - CLE (3.22, 37-22, .627, 1.20, 552)
6. Kirk Strittmatter - FLA (3.30, 29-22, .567, 1.22, 463)
7. Bob Wall - CHA (3.32, 30-20, .667, 1.28, 490)
8. Nick Alexander - TB (3.35, 43-23, .652, 1.19, 618)
9. Malachi Carlson - ATL (3.36, 33-17, .660, 1.19, 444)
10. Brandon Freeman - DET (3.43, 35-10, .875, 1.22, 466)
11T. Cliff Simms - NYM (3.44, 42-19, .689, 1.18, 594)
11T. Willie Santana - TB (3.44, 39-16, .709, 1.29, 539)
13. Tony Hudler - KC (3.46, 41-20, .671, 1.26, 593)
14. David Ayala - NYM (3.54, 32-23, .582, 1.14, 440)
15. Eugene Parkinson - OAK (3.55, 41-12, .782, 1.23, 445)
Honorable Mention - Castro ATL (3.57), Hyun CHC (3.57), Buchanan DET (3.60), Cooke SF (3.79)

I'm sure that I missed some. I didn't really write this to highlight Stewart, because the only credit for his success that I can claim is that I signed him to an extension during arbitration and I think everybody would have done that. What I was hoping to accomplish is to highlight pitchers that don't otherwise get much credit. They are the guys that are listed 4-7 and Santana.

Joseph - Here is a guy that had a tremendous first season (15-6, 3.04, 1.24) but did not make the all-star team. During season 2 he had injury problems that limited him to 136 IP. This season he is posting strong numbers again.

Guerrero - Working in the shadow's of Stewart, he has put up great numbers. He was not great during season 1, but still posted commendable numbers. He followed that up with a Cy Young worthy season after that (18-7, 2.62, 1.18), but was overshadowed by Stewart. And this season he has only pitched better. Was named to the All-star team in season 2.

Strittmatter - He seems to be lacking run support. Despite his 2.78 ERA and 1.11 WHIP last year, he was only able to manage 14 wins during his 34 starts. During the other two years, he has posted very good, but not phenomenal numbers.

Wall - Made the all-star team during season one, but only finished the year with an 11-8 record despite a 3.20 ERA. Went a disappointing 11-11 during season 2 with a 3.60 ERA, but has started off strong during season 3 with an 8-1 record.

Santana - Despite a nearly identical ERA and a better winning percentage he has lived in the shadow of Nick Alexander. Though a little tough to call him underappreciated with two all-star appearances, he was a strong contributor to the Rays playoff appearances. This year he has struggled, but is sure to turn it around says GM Boggs.

100 Career Home Runs

A little strange: KC Royals Jose Mota and Artie Rizzo each hit their 100th homerun today, in the same inning of the same game. Here is the GAP 100 HR Club, and those closing in:

145 - Wally Hunter (Cha) 29/LF (510)
130 - LaTroy Franco (Cle) 31/LF (432)
127 - C.C. Hutton (Oak) 28/1B (494)
126 - Dario Selby (Cle) 31/3B (406)
120 - Carlos Campos (Mil) 28/C (413)
118 - Jimmie Iglesias (Mil) 30/1B (496)
116 - Charlie Wirth (Ana) 24/C (566)
115 - Max Jiminez (Tex) 21/C (686)
110 - Chris Baker (Pit) 33/2B (280)
110 - Ivan Bechler (SF) 32/1B (372)
108 - Edwin Casey (CWS) 28/1B (469)
107 - Allan Hamilton (Oak) 31/2B (364)
103 - Trevor Valdez (Tor) 30/LF (392)
102 - Douglas Diaz (Cin) 28/CF (422)
100 - Jose Mota (KC) 24/DH (597)
100 - Artie Rizzo (KC) 33/1B (288)
99 - Ricky McIntyre (NYY) 29/3B (398)
99 - Jose Bocachica (Tor) 26/DH (418)
98 - Harry Fox (Hou) 28/3B (402)
98 - Oscar Nunnally (Oak) 29/C (319)
96 - Joe Warden (Det) 28/LF (452)
96 - Victor Parra (ChC) 26/3B (443)
94 - Clyde Valentin (Oak) 31/RF (296)
94 - Pedro Segui (Phi) 33/2B (282)
92 - Tori Valentin (Was) 27/3B (355)
90 - Yannick Reboulet (Tex) 28/LF (372)
90 - Victor Nieves (Tor) 29/3B (358)

Current team, age, position, and the last number in parentheses is a projected total using Bill James' Favorite Toy. It factors in age and last three seasons to project a career total. Since we only have 2.4 years in, I had to project an S3 total using stats-to-date, then plug in the numbers.
Let me know if I missed anybody. Guys who have split their 100+ among multiple teams probably got missed by me.

AL South Reigns Supreme

Led by the Kansas City Royals' 222 wins, the AL South holds division bragging rights in the GAP. Despite all the chirping going on from North and East owners, well, they say the numbers don't lie:

Rk Lg Div.. WPct .W. .L.
1. AL South .532 815-717
2. AL West. .523 801-731
3. NL South .522 799-733
4. NL North .505 773-759
5. NL West. .497 762-770
6. AL North .490 750-782
7. NL East. .482 738-794
8. AL East. .450 690-842

Prospect Report Vol. V -- SHORTSTOP

AAA – Ugueth Herrera (21) Houston Astros

Barely edging out Yankees top prospect Luther Callaway, Herrera projects to be one of the best young Shortstops in recent memory. Not only is he a solid overall defender, but he can flat out smash the ball. Herrera is on the cusp of hitting the majors, although his debut could very well find him somewhere other than SS until he hits his potential. Look for Ugueth in Houston come September callups.

AA – Domingo Sosa (20) Houston Astros

This spot once belonged to Cardinal Damion Scarsone, but his recent promotion and move to 2B gave Sosa the coveted spot of top AA Shortstop. Sosa hasn’t quite hit the ball as expected, but then again, he’s only appeared in 39 games (and 53 RBI in 39 games ain’t too shabby). His .311 average is sure to rise as he adjusts to the American game, and he is absolutely going to be a stalwart in the Astros organization for years to come (even if it ends up at 3B).

HiA – Al Martinez (20) Pittsburgh Pirates

A power hitting dynamo, many overlook the defensive prowess Martinez brings to the table. Sure, he’s hit 90 HR and knocked in 327 in only 243 career games, but at the raw age of 20, he is also already one of the better fielding SS’s in the minors. Look for Martinez to rocket up the ranks and hit the big time in a couple years. (He has recently been promoted to AA)

LowA – Omar Carrasco (19) St. Louis Cardinals

Any international signed for under $10 million is considered a steal nowadays, but when Carrasco was signed, he seemed to be receiving a fortune. Although he was recently promoted to High A, Carrasco spent the first part of the year at Low A, and simply raked the ball. Between the two, he has hit .379 with an OPS of 1.148 in 43 Season 3 games. With the inherit ability to smash to ball to all fields, Carrasco is going to be a superstar when he hits the majors in 2 to 3 seasons.

Week 1 Power Rankings

Okay, so it's 50 games into the season, so it's not really week 1. But the early season rankings seem to be inflated by easy early season schedules and blatant luck, so I waited until the Cubs were really on fire to get the first rankings out there (I kid...of course...). Numbers 1 and 2 are right where they left off, but #3 is where things start to get interesting...


SEASON 3 WEEK 1 POWER RANKINGS

1. Oakland Athletics (36-14)
Who would have ever dreamed of the A’s atop the rankings? Unlike last season, where Oakland had to rise from the depths (a whole couple games under .500), they have dominated from the start in Season 3. What is really amazing here is how they have continued to reign despite the devastating injury to star DH Oscar Nunnally. The A’s are proving they’re loaded and ready for anything that might and will happen.

2. San Francisco Giants (33-17) The reigning World Series Champs started right where they left off, and it all begins with Ivan Bechler. At 32, Bechler is like a fine wine, continuing to improve as he ages, hitting .349 with 20 HR and 60 RBI in only 50 early season games. As much as Arizona and Los Angeles have improved, San Francisco is proving they are the class of the West, and are aiming at a return trip to the Series.

3. Chicago Cubs (31-19)
The surprise of the league so far, this “rebuilding” project has been anything but. The “lovable losers” did just that, they lost 3 starting pitchers to trades and free agency over the offseason, then lost career wins leader Edgardo Pena to a season ending injury this week. Add all this to the loss of previous closer Cooper Hoffman in a trade and current closer Lee Winn to shoulder surgery, this team was not supposed to win 15 of 19 and 31 of 50 games to start the season. But the resurgence of Larry Charlton and Brady Hall along with the superb pitching of Louie Foster and Rich Allen have really brought the Cubs together to prove a formidable force in the NL North.

4. New York Mets (30-20) They would be up a ranking if not for a recent sweep at the hands of the Cubs, but don’t let that fool you. The Mets consider a 30-20 record to be a “slow start” and to have only the league’s 4^th best ERA seems to be a point of concern. The loss of reigning Cy-Young winner Bosco Jefferson in the offseason hurt the rotation, but the Metropolitans should be fine, especially with the continued dominance from Ralph Ryan, David Ayala and Cliff Simms. This is still the best pitching team in baseball, and I’m sure they’re eager to prove it.


5. Kansas City Royals (31-19)
One of the other big surprises so far, the Royals have run out to an impressive 4 game lead in the AL’s most competitive division. They have always been a high-scoring experiment, but it seems this is the year they have really put it all together. The key to their success lies in all-everything Theodore Haney, who is still on 21, but leads the majors in Runs Scored and is up there in HRs and RBI. If he can bring up his average, we could have another one for the record book, this time as the youngest player to take MVP honors in the short history of the GAP.

6. Seattle Mariners (30-20) The Mariner’s season seems the same as always, as they continue to play very impressive baseball, but also continue to reside in the AL West, where 100 wins insures nothing more than a Wild Card berth. Wes White continues his dominance over everyone, saving 10 of 10 with a non-existent ERA of 0.00. All they need is to start hitting, and this team could climb up the rankings and into…second.


7. Houston Astros (30-20)
If the first 50 games is any forecast, it’s going to be a dogfight in the NL South in Season 3. The Astros and Dukes (and to a lesser extent the Marlins and Cardinals) all agree that this is anyone’s game. The Astros might have the advantage due to the best team ERA in the GAP. Leading the charge is journeyman Kerry Sinclair, who holds a microscopic ERA of 0.57 in 9 starts, and Closer Chuck Rigdon, who is 5 for 5 in save chances with an ERA of only 1.31.

8. Charlotte Dukes (30-20)
Charlotte seems to finally be putting it all together this year, as they challenge the Astros and the rest of the NL South for superiority in Season 3. Second year man Wallace Lowe has simply dominated thus far, with a 6-2 record and a 2.14 ERA in 10 starts. There is reason to watch this year in Charlotte, as the lineup hasn’t even come close to reaching it’s potential, hitting only .267 so far. If the Dukes’ bats warm up a bit, this could be a sleeper team in the playoff race.

9. Minnesota Twins (29-21) Another surprising team in the rankings, the Twins have taken control of the once Tribe-dominated AL East. This is a solid team from top to bottom, ranking near the middle in hitting and near the top in team ERA. They are led by 25 year old Charles Kim (5-3 2.52 ERA) and 27 year old Vincenzo Cunningham (13-15 saves 2.16 ERA), and could end the 2 year reign the Indians have held in the division.

10. Atlanta Braves (28-22)
They may be #10 right now, but it is a common assumption that the Braves will be more than contending come the playoff race. It’s only a third of the way through the Season, and a 28-22 record is no reason for Braves fans to panic. The key would be getting Rookie Joaquin Cairo started. His 2-4 record and 7.29 ERA will have to come back to Earth sometime, and that will probably be the day the Braves really get started.