HBD has been updated to include historical stats. I've started playing with them and have some franchise batting records (all through Season 7). Granted, most team hitting stats are slanted toward AL teams with the DH, but top five includes at least the top NL team in almost every category:
At-Bats
1 BOS 41,122
2 KC_ 40,683
3 OAK 40,615
4 CHC 40,516
5 CHW 40,293
Runs
1 OAK 7,673
2 KC_ 7,074
3 BOS 6,707
4 CHC 6,413
5 HOU 6,358
Hits
1 BOS 11,984
2 OAK 11,770
3 KC_ 11,594
4 CHC 11,414
5 SF_ 11,143
Doubles
1 KC_ 2,043
2 OAK 1,986
3 CHC 1,881
4 BOS 1,875
5 MIN 1,847
Triples
1 HOU 467
2 SD_ 426
3 KC_ 420
4 OAK 391
5 DET 371
Homeruns
1 OAK 2,001
2 KC_ 1,986
3 MIL 1,686
4 CLE 1,671
5 HOU 1,659
Runs Batted In
1 OAK 7,445
2 KC_ 6,869
3 BOS 6,450
4 CHC 6,207
5 HOU 6,176
Walks
1 OAK 4,662
2 MIL 4,258
3 BOS 4,099
4 KC_ 4,093
5 ANA 3,942
Hit By Pitch
1 MEM 558
1 KC_ 558
3 OAK 495
4 SEA 491
5 BOS 487
Strikeouts (fewest)
1 OAK 5,909
2 SF_ 5,976
3 ANA 6,352
4 CHW 6,383
5 FLA 6,411
Stolen Bases
1 CIN 1,011
2 NYY 933
3 DET 918
4 ATL 873
5 CLE 857
Batting Average
1 BOS .291
2 OAK .290
3 KC_ .285
4 CHC .282
5 SF_ .279
On-Base Percentage
1 OAK .368
2 BOS .361
3 KC_ .357
4 CHC .350
5 SF_ .348
Slugging Percentage
1 OAK .506
2 KC_ .499
3 HOU .466
4 CLE .456
5 CHC .454
OPS
1 OAK .873
2 KC_ .856
3 BOS .812
4 HOU .80394
5 CHC .80387
Plate Appearances
1 OAK 46,036
2 BOS 45,938
3 KC_ 45,558
4 CHC 45,141
5 CHW 44,878
Intentional Walks
1 SF_ 256
2 NYM 246
3 MIL 232
4 ATL 219
5 STL 216
Sacrifice Flies
1 OAK 257
2 KC_ 216
3 DET 212
4 MEM 210
4 ANA 210
Sacrifice Hits
1 NYM 276
2 LA_ 245
3 TEX 220
4 ATL 215
5 SD_ 211
Grounded Into Double Plays (fewest)
1 CIN 819
2 CLE 915
3 HOU 939
4 SD_ 998
5 NYY 1,006
Infield Hits
1 VAN 329
2 DET 303
3 CLE 292
4 ATL 285
5 PIT 282
Bunt Hits
1 CIN 123
2 BOS 119
3 NYY 115
4 PIT 108
5 VAN 106
5 DET 106
Number of Pitches Seen
1 OAK 162,730
2 BOS 159,223
3 KC_ 158,340
4 CHW 156,893
5 ANA 155,937
Number of Pitches Per Plate Appearance
1 OAK 3.53
2 ANA 3.499
3 CHW 3.49599
4 SF_ 3.49592
5 KC_ 3.48
Pinch Hits
1 CHC 360
2 ATL 333
3 PIT 331
4 CHA 321
5 CIN 319
Pinch At-Bats
1 CHC 1,235
2 PIT 1,228
3 WAS 1,186
4 ATL 1,184
5 FLA 1,182
Pinch Batting Average
1 OAK .409
2 CHW .310
3 VAN .304
4 NYY .294
5 CHC .291
Friday, May 23, 2008
Friday, February 8, 2008
GAP's Greatest Shortstop?
For all the hype about Tampa's Miguel Torres, is he really the best SS in GAP? Let's take a look at the numbers and try to figure it out.
First, who is in the discussion? We'll start with Torres, and add active SSs who have earned at least two all-star berths at SS. Although, this criteria wouldn't include Torres (his only selection came way back in Season 1), it seems like a fair starting point. We'll knock out Eugene Hackman who hasn't played since Season 5, and Al Cradle, who is retired. That leaves us with Todd Linebrink (Oak), Alberto Abreu (Mem), and Theodore Haney (KC).
Trolling through the league depth charts, I found quite a few other names that should be considered for this discussion. But first, we should note some guys who have a chance to be in this discussion a few years down the road, when they have some big league results to back up their ratings:
Rick Gordon (Bal)
Joaquin Ortiz (Cle)
Domingo Sosa (Hou)
Ugueth Herrera (Hou)
Chip Oliver (Phi)
Russ Anderson (Van)
There are a couple other guys who could play SS with some defensive deficiences (like Cincinnati's Andres Mieses and Tampa's Pedro Guerrero), but without ML SS results, I don't want to include them here. In fact, that same criteria diminishes Haney's case pretty strongly, which we will discuss further shortly. However, there are a few guys with results that warrant them being included in this discussion:
Roosevelt Kohlmeier (ChW)
Matt Moore (SD)
Barry Clayton (StL)
Missing my arbitrary cut but still worthy of note: Matt Kubenka (Cha).
So let's take a look at these seven. First, on the offensive side. The easiest available tool to measure hitting production is OPS. Here are our seven with their career OPS, and S6 OPS in parentheses:
Haney 947 (951)
Linebrink 882 (919)
Kohlmeier 879 (978)
Moore 874 (793)
Clayton 854 (769)
Abreu 775 (605)
Torres 687 (712)
Another way to slice offensive output is RC/27. That Runs Created per 27 outs. I had to make a couple minor tweaks due to the limited historical data (player card doesn't show extended batting info). I used the stolen base RC formula so we were including SB/CS, and eliminated GIDP, SH, and SF from the outs side because we don't have that. Here are our candidates, with their RC/27 career, and S6 in parentheses:
Haney 7.69 (8.08)
Linebrink 7.23 (7.95)
Kohlmeier 6.95 (8.62)
Moore 6.68 (5.20)
Clayton 6.51 (5.21)
Abreu 5.27 (3.07)
Torres 4.33 (4.78)
Our players fall in the same order as in the OPS rankings. So we can feel good about this order, and weight them on a sliding scale (100 as the top of the scale) as follows:
Haney 100
Linebrink 94
Kohlmeier 92
Moore 90
Clayton 87
Abreu 75
Torres 64
Now let's take a look at defense. First, we should note the number of games played at SS, versus total games played:
Linebrink 906/916
Torres 870/875
Abreu 860/860
Kohlmeier 509/571
Moore 476/477
Clayton 408/749
Haney 224/701
All but Haney and Clayton have played more than 89% of their games at SS. Clayton played most of S2 at 2B and 3B, and continues to move around to other positions, but has played 54% of this games at SS. On the other hand, he only played 17 games at SS last year, filling the 2B slot most of the way. Haney, however, has played just 32% of his at SS. As a 20-year-old in S2, he played most of his games in RF, and did the same in S3. He split time evenly between SS, CF, and 2B in S4. His S4 games at SS primarily came early in the season, and were enough for him to be selected as an all-star at SS that year. He played 38 games at SS in S5, working primarily in CF that year. Last year was his first full year at SS, playing 130 of his 139 games there.
Each reader will have to make their own judgment call on whether one or both of these guys should be excluded from this discussion based on this. Haney, now 25, and Clayton, now 26, both have nearly reached their rating projections and are being used at SS here at the start of S7.
As to the defense, the most basic defensive stat is fielding percentage. Let's start there. Here are our guys, with career SS FPct and S6 in parentheses:
Torres .989 (.998)
Abreu .985 (.985)
Linebrink .973 (.986)
Clayton .966 (.986)
Haney .961 (.969)
Kohlmeier .958 (.974)
Moore .956 (.980)
Bill James created Range Factor, believing the number of outs a player participates in is more relevant than the number cleanly handled. Here our the range factors for our group, career and S6:
Haney 6.75 (6.55)
Torres 6.29 (6.14)
Linebrink 6.27 (5.90)
Abreu 6.19 (6.15)
Kohlmeier 5.87 (5.73)
Clayton 5.73 (5.20)
Moore 5.71 (5.76)
Lastly, HBD gives us a quantified number of excellent plays. To account for the varied amount of playing time, I converted the + plays to a rate, dividing by 1458 innings played (162*9), giving us an approximation of Great Plays Per Season (GPPS). Here are career and S6 numbers:
Torres 9.6 (12.8)
Abreu 5.8 (3.5)
Kohlmeier 2.6 (5.4)
Linebrink 2.0 (1.2)
Moore 1.5 (3.3)
Haney 1.5 (1.3)
Clayton 0.9 (0.0)
While FPct and RF reflect an entire season worth of play, GPPS only reflects a handful of plays. So by weighting these categories accordingly, and re-weighting again with 100 at the top of the scale, we get the following defensive scores:
Torres 100
Haney 98
Abreu 97
Linebrink 95
Kohlmeier 92
Moore 90
Clayton 90
Now, to go about the task of merging the offensive and defensive scores. It's clear we can't just average them, as fielding is only a portion of the defensive formula, along with pitching. Let's keep it simple and make fielding worth half as much. Using this method, here are the final rankings, again re-weighting to make 100 the top of the scale:
Haney 100
Linebrink 95
Kohlmeier 93
Moore 91
Clayton 89
Abreu 83
Torres 77
In the end, it's clear that while Torres and Abreu are both very strong defensively, their signifcant offensive shortcomings don't put them in the same category as a Haney or a Linebrink.
Clearly, there are a number of methodolgies that could be used that might vary these results slightly. Based on the statistics used and what they both mathematically represent and historically have proven, these results can't be far off. In fact, the only way to construct a case for Torres over the others would be to select only certain rudimentary statistics. However, even just using a basic stat like batting average, Torres comes up ahead of just two of the other six. There really is no argument here whatsoever. Torres is simply not a contender for GAP's Greatest Shortstop.
First, who is in the discussion? We'll start with Torres, and add active SSs who have earned at least two all-star berths at SS. Although, this criteria wouldn't include Torres (his only selection came way back in Season 1), it seems like a fair starting point. We'll knock out Eugene Hackman who hasn't played since Season 5, and Al Cradle, who is retired. That leaves us with Todd Linebrink (Oak), Alberto Abreu (Mem), and Theodore Haney (KC).
Trolling through the league depth charts, I found quite a few other names that should be considered for this discussion. But first, we should note some guys who have a chance to be in this discussion a few years down the road, when they have some big league results to back up their ratings:
Rick Gordon (Bal)
Joaquin Ortiz (Cle)
Domingo Sosa (Hou)
Ugueth Herrera (Hou)
Chip Oliver (Phi)
Russ Anderson (Van)
There are a couple other guys who could play SS with some defensive deficiences (like Cincinnati's Andres Mieses and Tampa's Pedro Guerrero), but without ML SS results, I don't want to include them here. In fact, that same criteria diminishes Haney's case pretty strongly, which we will discuss further shortly. However, there are a few guys with results that warrant them being included in this discussion:
Roosevelt Kohlmeier (ChW)
Matt Moore (SD)
Barry Clayton (StL)
Missing my arbitrary cut but still worthy of note: Matt Kubenka (Cha).
So let's take a look at these seven. First, on the offensive side. The easiest available tool to measure hitting production is OPS. Here are our seven with their career OPS, and S6 OPS in parentheses:
Haney 947 (951)
Linebrink 882 (919)
Kohlmeier 879 (978)
Moore 874 (793)
Clayton 854 (769)
Abreu 775 (605)
Torres 687 (712)
Another way to slice offensive output is RC/27. That Runs Created per 27 outs. I had to make a couple minor tweaks due to the limited historical data (player card doesn't show extended batting info). I used the stolen base RC formula so we were including SB/CS, and eliminated GIDP, SH, and SF from the outs side because we don't have that. Here are our candidates, with their RC/27 career, and S6 in parentheses:
Haney 7.69 (8.08)
Linebrink 7.23 (7.95)
Kohlmeier 6.95 (8.62)
Moore 6.68 (5.20)
Clayton 6.51 (5.21)
Abreu 5.27 (3.07)
Torres 4.33 (4.78)
Our players fall in the same order as in the OPS rankings. So we can feel good about this order, and weight them on a sliding scale (100 as the top of the scale) as follows:
Haney 100
Linebrink 94
Kohlmeier 92
Moore 90
Clayton 87
Abreu 75
Torres 64
Now let's take a look at defense. First, we should note the number of games played at SS, versus total games played:
Linebrink 906/916
Torres 870/875
Abreu 860/860
Kohlmeier 509/571
Moore 476/477
Clayton 408/749
Haney 224/701
All but Haney and Clayton have played more than 89% of their games at SS. Clayton played most of S2 at 2B and 3B, and continues to move around to other positions, but has played 54% of this games at SS. On the other hand, he only played 17 games at SS last year, filling the 2B slot most of the way. Haney, however, has played just 32% of his at SS. As a 20-year-old in S2, he played most of his games in RF, and did the same in S3. He split time evenly between SS, CF, and 2B in S4. His S4 games at SS primarily came early in the season, and were enough for him to be selected as an all-star at SS that year. He played 38 games at SS in S5, working primarily in CF that year. Last year was his first full year at SS, playing 130 of his 139 games there.
Each reader will have to make their own judgment call on whether one or both of these guys should be excluded from this discussion based on this. Haney, now 25, and Clayton, now 26, both have nearly reached their rating projections and are being used at SS here at the start of S7.
As to the defense, the most basic defensive stat is fielding percentage. Let's start there. Here are our guys, with career SS FPct and S6 in parentheses:
Torres .989 (.998)
Abreu .985 (.985)
Linebrink .973 (.986)
Clayton .966 (.986)
Haney .961 (.969)
Kohlmeier .958 (.974)
Moore .956 (.980)
Bill James created Range Factor, believing the number of outs a player participates in is more relevant than the number cleanly handled. Here our the range factors for our group, career and S6:
Haney 6.75 (6.55)
Torres 6.29 (6.14)
Linebrink 6.27 (5.90)
Abreu 6.19 (6.15)
Kohlmeier 5.87 (5.73)
Clayton 5.73 (5.20)
Moore 5.71 (5.76)
Lastly, HBD gives us a quantified number of excellent plays. To account for the varied amount of playing time, I converted the + plays to a rate, dividing by 1458 innings played (162*9), giving us an approximation of Great Plays Per Season (GPPS). Here are career and S6 numbers:
Torres 9.6 (12.8)
Abreu 5.8 (3.5)
Kohlmeier 2.6 (5.4)
Linebrink 2.0 (1.2)
Moore 1.5 (3.3)
Haney 1.5 (1.3)
Clayton 0.9 (0.0)
While FPct and RF reflect an entire season worth of play, GPPS only reflects a handful of plays. So by weighting these categories accordingly, and re-weighting again with 100 at the top of the scale, we get the following defensive scores:
Torres 100
Haney 98
Abreu 97
Linebrink 95
Kohlmeier 92
Moore 90
Clayton 90
Now, to go about the task of merging the offensive and defensive scores. It's clear we can't just average them, as fielding is only a portion of the defensive formula, along with pitching. Let's keep it simple and make fielding worth half as much. Using this method, here are the final rankings, again re-weighting to make 100 the top of the scale:
Haney 100
Linebrink 95
Kohlmeier 93
Moore 91
Clayton 89
Abreu 83
Torres 77
In the end, it's clear that while Torres and Abreu are both very strong defensively, their signifcant offensive shortcomings don't put them in the same category as a Haney or a Linebrink.
Clearly, there are a number of methodolgies that could be used that might vary these results slightly. Based on the statistics used and what they both mathematically represent and historically have proven, these results can't be far off. In fact, the only way to construct a case for Torres over the others would be to select only certain rudimentary statistics. However, even just using a basic stat like batting average, Torres comes up ahead of just two of the other six. There really is no argument here whatsoever. Torres is simply not a contender for GAP's Greatest Shortstop.
Wednesday, October 24, 2007
The 85 Club (beginning of season 6)
At the beginning of season 6, the current members of The 85 Club are:
95 Douglas Diaz, 2B, New York Mets
94 Cliff Simms, SP, New York Mets
92 Joe Linden, 2B, Atlanta Braves
92 Joe Warden, LF, New York Mets
91 David Russell, SP, Boston Red Sox
91 Greg Stewart, SP, Cleveland Indians
90 Brian Snyder, 2B, San Francisco Giants
90 Al Alvarez, C, San Francisco Giants
90 Jin-Che Wang, SP, San Francisco Giants
90 Theodore Haney, SS Kansas City Royals
90 Mark Moore, 3B, Atlanta Braves
89 Samuel Curtis, SP, Arizona Diamondbacks
89 Todd Linebrink, SS, Oakland Athletics
89 Andres Mieses, 3B, Cincinnati Reds
89 Victor Palacios, SP, Oakland Athletics
89 Tom Dickerson, CF, Milwaukee Brewers
88 Chuck Hoover, 2B, Chicago Cubs
88 Everett Hernandez, RF, Tampa Bay Rays
88 Ralph Ryan, RP, New York Mets
87 Barry Clayton, SS, St. Louis Cardinals
87 Harry Wilfredo, SP, Seattle Mariners
87 Bud Benjamin, SP, Vancouver Mounties
87 Tony Yoshii, 2B, Tampa Bay Devil Rays
87 Matt Moore, SS, San Diego Padres
87 Nipsey Morris, C, New York Mets
87 Ted Hogan, SS, New York Mets
87 Wiki Pena, 3B, Florida Marlins
86 Clarence Cooke, SP, San Francisco Giants
86 Harry Fox, 3B, Houston Astros
86 Russ Bartee, SP, Toronto Blue Jays
86 Tom Cornelius, SP, Houston Astros
86 Ricardo Castro, SP, Atlanta Braves
85 Max Jimenez, C, Texas Rangers
85 Matt Kubenka, SS, Charlotte Dukes
85 Brady Hall, LF, Chicago Cubs
85 Roosevelt Kohlmeier, SS, Chicago White Sox
85 Domingo Sosa, SS, Houston Astros
85 Damaso Pulido, 2B, Toronto Blue Jays
85 Derek Coleman, SP, Atlanta Braves
95 Douglas Diaz, 2B, New York Mets
94 Cliff Simms, SP, New York Mets
92 Joe Linden, 2B, Atlanta Braves
92 Joe Warden, LF, New York Mets
91 David Russell, SP, Boston Red Sox
91 Greg Stewart, SP, Cleveland Indians
90 Brian Snyder, 2B, San Francisco Giants
90 Al Alvarez, C, San Francisco Giants
90 Jin-Che Wang, SP, San Francisco Giants
90 Theodore Haney, SS Kansas City Royals
90 Mark Moore, 3B, Atlanta Braves
89 Samuel Curtis, SP, Arizona Diamondbacks
89 Todd Linebrink, SS, Oakland Athletics
89 Andres Mieses, 3B, Cincinnati Reds
89 Victor Palacios, SP, Oakland Athletics
89 Tom Dickerson, CF, Milwaukee Brewers
88 Chuck Hoover, 2B, Chicago Cubs
88 Everett Hernandez, RF, Tampa Bay Rays
88 Ralph Ryan, RP, New York Mets
87 Barry Clayton, SS, St. Louis Cardinals
87 Harry Wilfredo, SP, Seattle Mariners
87 Bud Benjamin, SP, Vancouver Mounties
87 Tony Yoshii, 2B, Tampa Bay Devil Rays
87 Matt Moore, SS, San Diego Padres
87 Nipsey Morris, C, New York Mets
87 Ted Hogan, SS, New York Mets
87 Wiki Pena, 3B, Florida Marlins
86 Clarence Cooke, SP, San Francisco Giants
86 Harry Fox, 3B, Houston Astros
86 Russ Bartee, SP, Toronto Blue Jays
86 Tom Cornelius, SP, Houston Astros
86 Ricardo Castro, SP, Atlanta Braves
85 Max Jimenez, C, Texas Rangers
85 Matt Kubenka, SS, Charlotte Dukes
85 Brady Hall, LF, Chicago Cubs
85 Roosevelt Kohlmeier, SS, Chicago White Sox
85 Domingo Sosa, SS, Houston Astros
85 Damaso Pulido, 2B, Toronto Blue Jays
85 Derek Coleman, SP, Atlanta Braves
Wednesday, September 19, 2007
The $200,000,000 (+?) Kansas City Royals
This is the story of how $200,000,000 hasn't been enough for KC.
Late in S4, I was laying out my S5 plan. At the start of S1, I signed the two prime FAs to five-year deals, Artie Rizzo and Tony Hudler. Both had $20,000,000 deals for S5. I had some other significant chunks of money committed as well. I determined I'd need $91 mil to pay the guys I already had.
However, my rotation needed help. I was good with Hudler, McCartney, and Faulk starting, but nobody else. Vosberg won 21 games in S4 but with an ERA over 5, I knew it was just good fortune and a good offense behind him. I didn't want to go with him getting 30-35 starts this year. And with the fatigue change taking innings away from the other guys, I realized I need at least 1.5 more starters (a solid starter and a spot guy) or even 2 (2 solid starters in a 5MR). So I determined I could bump my salary to $101 or $103 mil in budgeting to make room for two guys at $5 mil to $6 mil each.
WiredTiger announced late in S4 that he was moving all vets and rebuilding in S5. I targeted two of his pitchers--Jake Payton and Eugene Parkinson. Payton, with a career ERA just over 3 and a WHIP under 1.20 would be a nice addition to the rotation. He is signed through S7, but I felt like S5 was a better chance for the Royals to win it all than S6 or S7 will be, so it was an acceptable hit to take. Parkinson is a good fit as a two-times-out-of-three through the rotation guy, but making $11.5 mil. His ratings didn't justify that money currently, but he is also in year five of a five-year deal. He wouldn't hurt me financially after this year since he was expiring. With a sub-4 ERA and a 17/65 dur/sta, I felt I could get 160 good innings out of him and pitch the other four guys 35 times each.
For me to make room for them, I needed to budget more than $91 mil, or get money in the deal. Since WT was rebuilding, he had some dollars he wasn't going to need:
(WT trade chat to me on 7/16) "I guess you can assume that in any trade I am looking for the best prospects and not necessarily cap space. Even with these guys on my roster I'm only going to be at about $75 million."
He'd rather have better prospects than money. Seems like a fair use of the $185 mil WIS gives us. WT and I kept the discussion going and I felt good that we were going to get a deal made that brought me an additional $17.5 mil in salary. I couldn't budget $108 mil, but he was willing to include money:
(My trade chat to WT on 7/20) "I talked myself into this. Check out the new projections if/when we ever get started. I'll budget $98 million, which will be perfect if we make the deal but won't kill me ($7 million too high) if you want to bail after seeing the projections."
So we worked it out. I needed $108 mil including those guys' salaries, so I budgeted $98 mil. The deals were certainly fair. In fact, I may have given up too much but I was able to keep Santayana (the heir apparent to Rizzo at 1B). Much of the rest of my ML lineup is young, so ML-ready prospects aren't that important to me right now.
I then did something stupid. Italked myself into a 3MT for the first 10 games. I thought Vosberg could help me and I could get Hudler, McCartney, and Payton on the hill more often. I wasn't happy with the results however and ditched it. I still didn't have the team playing as well as I thought they could, so I gave Bill Strickland more starts at catcher. Plus, Hudler went down for ~80 days, and the guys picking up the extra starts made a need for a better pitch-calling catcher. I have Strickland, a good pitch caller who can't hit; Mintz, who should hit better but doesn't; and Pulido, who is a bad pitch caller and a great hitter but no durability limits him to 200-250 ABs a year, better spent at DH.
With Strickland in place, I still wasn't happy. Then I found out Gerald Daly was available from Pittsburgh. Daly has a big bat and a decent PC rating of 57. We worked out a deal with me taking Daly and another expiring contract, a difference of about $8 mil. I couldn't afford that, so WT added another $5 mil. Another fair trade, IMHO.
Now the injury bug has set in further. All three of WT's poison players have suffered serious injuries. First, Daly went down for the year on 9/8. So I've gone back to Strickland with Mintz still in the doghouse. Next, on 9/12, Payton went down for ~70 days. Newly promoted Howard File was now slotted to get some spot starts. Finally, on 9/18, Parkinson got hurt and is out for 59 days. My rotation is now three-deep, so I put Vosberg in temporarily and will still have to spot start File. I need some money to sign or trade for somebody that can hold it down for the next 60 days in the middle of a tight pennant race, thus the call for $2 million more.
Now, after all that, hopefully all can see that nothing shady is going on. I understand that there are two types of trades that some have a problem with, philosophically: 1) money for players trades; and 2) players with salaries paid for prospects trades. The first three with the $5 mil included were type 2, and a new trade would be type 1.
I personally don't understand the concern in this world. In a world where owners come and go, it would be bad for the world to allow a team to make a lot of trades for money and build a super team, destroying the team for years to come. However, that clearly isn't the case here. I understand the sacrifices I'm making (and have determined that I can afford them based on the fact that much of my team is young and we should be back in contention in S8) to make one last run this year with Rizzo, Hudler, Brooks, Phillips, and Silva. I'm committed to this world long-term (I've already renewed for S6, more than can be said for those objecting) and it should be clear that there is no collusion. What is the harm that is done?
Late in S4, I was laying out my S5 plan. At the start of S1, I signed the two prime FAs to five-year deals, Artie Rizzo and Tony Hudler. Both had $20,000,000 deals for S5. I had some other significant chunks of money committed as well. I determined I'd need $91 mil to pay the guys I already had.
However, my rotation needed help. I was good with Hudler, McCartney, and Faulk starting, but nobody else. Vosberg won 21 games in S4 but with an ERA over 5, I knew it was just good fortune and a good offense behind him. I didn't want to go with him getting 30-35 starts this year. And with the fatigue change taking innings away from the other guys, I realized I need at least 1.5 more starters (a solid starter and a spot guy) or even 2 (2 solid starters in a 5MR). So I determined I could bump my salary to $101 or $103 mil in budgeting to make room for two guys at $5 mil to $6 mil each.
WiredTiger announced late in S4 that he was moving all vets and rebuilding in S5. I targeted two of his pitchers--Jake Payton and Eugene Parkinson. Payton, with a career ERA just over 3 and a WHIP under 1.20 would be a nice addition to the rotation. He is signed through S7, but I felt like S5 was a better chance for the Royals to win it all than S6 or S7 will be, so it was an acceptable hit to take. Parkinson is a good fit as a two-times-out-of-three through the rotation guy, but making $11.5 mil. His ratings didn't justify that money currently, but he is also in year five of a five-year deal. He wouldn't hurt me financially after this year since he was expiring. With a sub-4 ERA and a 17/65 dur/sta, I felt I could get 160 good innings out of him and pitch the other four guys 35 times each.
For me to make room for them, I needed to budget more than $91 mil, or get money in the deal. Since WT was rebuilding, he had some dollars he wasn't going to need:
(WT trade chat to me on 7/16) "I guess you can assume that in any trade I am looking for the best prospects and not necessarily cap space. Even with these guys on my roster I'm only going to be at about $75 million."
He'd rather have better prospects than money. Seems like a fair use of the $185 mil WIS gives us. WT and I kept the discussion going and I felt good that we were going to get a deal made that brought me an additional $17.5 mil in salary. I couldn't budget $108 mil, but he was willing to include money:
(My trade chat to WT on 7/20) "I talked myself into this. Check out the new projections if/when we ever get started. I'll budget $98 million, which will be perfect if we make the deal but won't kill me ($7 million too high) if you want to bail after seeing the projections."
So we worked it out. I needed $108 mil including those guys' salaries, so I budgeted $98 mil. The deals were certainly fair. In fact, I may have given up too much but I was able to keep Santayana (the heir apparent to Rizzo at 1B). Much of the rest of my ML lineup is young, so ML-ready prospects aren't that important to me right now.
I then did something stupid. Italked myself into a 3MT for the first 10 games. I thought Vosberg could help me and I could get Hudler, McCartney, and Payton on the hill more often. I wasn't happy with the results however and ditched it. I still didn't have the team playing as well as I thought they could, so I gave Bill Strickland more starts at catcher. Plus, Hudler went down for ~80 days, and the guys picking up the extra starts made a need for a better pitch-calling catcher. I have Strickland, a good pitch caller who can't hit; Mintz, who should hit better but doesn't; and Pulido, who is a bad pitch caller and a great hitter but no durability limits him to 200-250 ABs a year, better spent at DH.
With Strickland in place, I still wasn't happy. Then I found out Gerald Daly was available from Pittsburgh. Daly has a big bat and a decent PC rating of 57. We worked out a deal with me taking Daly and another expiring contract, a difference of about $8 mil. I couldn't afford that, so WT added another $5 mil. Another fair trade, IMHO.
Now the injury bug has set in further. All three of WT's poison players have suffered serious injuries. First, Daly went down for the year on 9/8. So I've gone back to Strickland with Mintz still in the doghouse. Next, on 9/12, Payton went down for ~70 days. Newly promoted Howard File was now slotted to get some spot starts. Finally, on 9/18, Parkinson got hurt and is out for 59 days. My rotation is now three-deep, so I put Vosberg in temporarily and will still have to spot start File. I need some money to sign or trade for somebody that can hold it down for the next 60 days in the middle of a tight pennant race, thus the call for $2 million more.
Now, after all that, hopefully all can see that nothing shady is going on. I understand that there are two types of trades that some have a problem with, philosophically: 1) money for players trades; and 2) players with salaries paid for prospects trades. The first three with the $5 mil included were type 2, and a new trade would be type 1.
I personally don't understand the concern in this world. In a world where owners come and go, it would be bad for the world to allow a team to make a lot of trades for money and build a super team, destroying the team for years to come. However, that clearly isn't the case here. I understand the sacrifices I'm making (and have determined that I can afford them based on the fact that much of my team is young and we should be back in contention in S8) to make one last run this year with Rizzo, Hudler, Brooks, Phillips, and Silva. I'm committed to this world long-term (I've already renewed for S6, more than can be said for those objecting) and it should be clear that there is no collusion. What is the harm that is done?
Tuesday, September 18, 2007
Decline of K rate in GAP
Look at the top 5 strikeout pitchers in GAP over their careers by K/9IP
Greg Stewart: Career - 8.05 K/9IP; Season 5 - 2.72
Jin-Che Wang: 7.11; 3.97
Cliff Simms: 7.01; 3.375
Bosco Jeffereson: 6.97; 4.2
Tony Hudler: 6.96; 5.85 (the smallest difference but only over 40 IP)
Obviously something has changed in the Sim engine. This is not a small sample size, since we are talking about 600+ IP for these 5 this season alone. Could they have changed which criteria is used to determine a good strikeout pitcher. Not sure. Wanted to show the observation.
Greg Stewart: Career - 8.05 K/9IP; Season 5 - 2.72
Jin-Che Wang: 7.11; 3.97
Cliff Simms: 7.01; 3.375
Bosco Jeffereson: 6.97; 4.2
Tony Hudler: 6.96; 5.85 (the smallest difference but only over 40 IP)
Obviously something has changed in the Sim engine. This is not a small sample size, since we are talking about 600+ IP for these 5 this season alone. Could they have changed which criteria is used to determine a good strikeout pitcher. Not sure. Wanted to show the observation.
Monday, September 17, 2007
All-Star Trivia
1. Who is the only five-time All-Star?
2. Who is the only non-pitcher to be on at least four All-Star teams?
3. Who is the youngest player to be on at least three All-Star teams?
4. Name the three players tied for youngest All-Star, all making it at age 22.
5. Name the five players who have been on both the NL and AL All-Star teams.
6. Name the one guy who made it in the AL, then in the NL, and then in the AL again.
7. Who are the two 36-year-olds who made the All-Star team this year, the oldest players ever to make it?
8. Who are the two players to make it at both SS and CF?
9. Who is the only player to make four All-Star teams while aged 31 or older?
10. How many All-Star teams has Nick Alexander made?
ANSWERS IN THE FIRST COMMENT.
2. Who is the only non-pitcher to be on at least four All-Star teams?
3. Who is the youngest player to be on at least three All-Star teams?
4. Name the three players tied for youngest All-Star, all making it at age 22.
5. Name the five players who have been on both the NL and AL All-Star teams.
6. Name the one guy who made it in the AL, then in the NL, and then in the AL again.
7. Who are the two 36-year-olds who made the All-Star team this year, the oldest players ever to make it?
8. Who are the two players to make it at both SS and CF?
9. Who is the only player to make four All-Star teams while aged 31 or older?
10. How many All-Star teams has Nick Alexander made?
ANSWERS IN THE FIRST COMMENT.
Monday, September 10, 2007
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